The Situation In The Market For Homes Over $10M Is Extraordinary

The Spring Listing Surge Is Here

Every now and then the data tells a story that headlines miss.

We’re only 10 weeks into 2026, and the Phoenix market has already recorded 21 home sales priced at $10M or more. This is the ultra-luxury segment, and it's positively blowing up. Makes me wonder what the ultra-high net worth buyers know that we don't!

For context:

-2022: fewer ultra-luxury closings all year

-2025: our strongest year so far with 32 total

-2026 (so far): 21 in just 10 weeks

That activity has pushed year-to-date dollar volume to $283M, compared with $77M during the same period last year.

At first glance, this surge makes it look like home prices everywhere are skyrocketing.

The average home price currently shows $650,424, roughly 3% higher than the same time in 2025.

But here’s the interesting part.

If we remove the $10M+ ultra-luxury transactions, the average price drops to $627,743 — almost unchanged from last year.

In other words:

A couple dozen ultra-high-end sales are skewing the averages, making the market appear hotter than it actually is for most buyers and investors.

This is exactly why looking at the underlying data matters more than the headlines.

For long-term investors, it reinforces something important:

Real estate performance is often hyper-localized by price segment, not just by overall averages.

It’s also one of the reasons some investors choose to hold real estate inside retirement structures like Self-Directed IRAs, allowing long-term appreciation and rental income to compound over time (while following specific rules and custodial structures). Ask me about this - I know a lot on this subject.

If you ever want a deeper breakdown of Phoenix market trends — or how investors are approaching opportunities right now — I’m always happy to share what I’m seeing in the data.

Want local data or strategy by city?

I’ll send over a quick custom summary for your neighborhood or price point. Let me know what you'd like to see by scheduling a quick call with me or by contacting me here.