📊 93% Recession Odds — What That Could Mean for Phoenix Housing

Recession Fears Are Rising — But So Are Home Sales

Headlines are getting louder about the economy, yet closed sales this September were up 12% over last September. Hmmm....

UBS recently estimated a 93% probability of recession, following weak job reports and an unemployment rate now at 4.3%.

But here’s the thing: Historically, when the economy slows… the housing market heats up.

Even during past recessions — 2001, 2008, and 2020 — Greater Phoenix home sales increased, despite higher unemployment.

Why? Because as fear rises:

Investors move money to safer places, like bonds.
This drives 10-year Treasury yields down.
Lower Treasury yields → Lower mortgage rates.
Most people are still employed — and with falling rates, their buying power increases.

Result: Demand rises, often quickly.

Buyers see improved affordability and jump back into the market.
Sellers notice renewed activity and decide it’s time to list.
Keep in mind: November–December are slower months seasonally — even if rates drop, holiday distractions may reduce buyer traffic....although with as much pent up demand as we've had, let's see if this pattern holds this year.

Not every segment benefits equally:

Luxury and retirement buyers often pay cash.
Their decisions are influenced more by investment portfolio performance than mortgage rates.
During recessions, those segments often pause while the mainstream market stays active.

While the headlines might sound alarming…

Mortgage rates could improve as recession fears grow.
Buyers with stable income may see a rare opportunity to move.
Sellers preparing for early-2026 listings could benefit by staying ready as rates ease.

Phoenix’s market has a history of thriving through downturns — and the next few months may follow that same pattern.

If you're curious about the current state of the market, don't hesitate to reach out by scheduling a quick call with me or contact me here.