🗜 Buyer Market Beginning to Weaken - Temporary or Permanent?

The chart in the data section below shows the Cromford Market Index — our key gauge for supply vs. demand in Phoenix Metro real estate.

• Green arrow ↑ = shift in favor of sellers compared to last month

• Red arrow ↓ = shift in favor of buyers

Market Scale:

• 110+ → Seller’s Market

• 90–110 → Balanced

• <90 → Buyer’s Market

Right now, the chart is mostly green — a trend we’ve been watching for about 4 weeks. If you remember my recent note on leading pricing indicators — this is it.

💡 These metrics lead price changes by ~3–4 months.

Prices haven’t moved yet… but if the trend continues, expect median sold prices to start creeping up once cities move back into Seller's Market territory.

📈 What’s Driving the Shift?

• Lower supply — especially in Paradise Valley

• Interest rates down — now at ~6.55%, the lowest in 10 months, giving buyers a little extra motivation

🏡 Street-Level Insight:

This isn’t just data — we’re seeing it in real life.

• I have a client buying in a sector that was ice-cold two months ago. Last week? Bidding war.

• Similar stories are coming from other agents in my 600+ agent office.

• These anecdotal shifts usually hit the official stats about a month later.

⏳ Temporary or Permanent?

I’m calling it a semi-permanent shift:

• Expect some seasonal slowdown into Nov–Dec (supply rises, buyer activity dips for the holidays)

• Likely wiped away by the busy season in January 2026

🎯 What This Means for Buyers & Investors:

Savvy clients are acting now — not waiting for the price uptick.

• Still room to negotiate great terms, repairs, and prices

• Just watch out for multiple-offer situations on the most desirable properties

🏠 What This Means for Sellers:

The window is starting to open for stronger sales outcomes.

• If you’re considering selling, listing in the next 30–60 days could position you ahead of the seasonal slowdown

• Buyer demand is still selective — the right pricing and presentation matter

• In certain pockets, competition is heating up (bidding wars are back in some cases)

• Prepping your home now means you can hit the market while it’s tilting in your favor

If you're curious to dive deeper, don't hesitate to reach out by scheduling a quick call with me or dropping me a line.

Cromford Market Index

Notably, Paradise Valley has experienced the greatest move back into Seller Market territory. This is due to a pretty limited supply of properties (as many have come off for the summer), and stronger than expected demand. Other markets moving into slight seller market territory include: Fountain Hills, Chandler, and Cave Creek. The only markets that saw a slight move in favor of Buyers versus last month are Tempe, Surprise, and Maricopa.

For the data nerds out there who are like me and want a deeper dive, schedule a quick call with me or drop me a line.