The Phoenix Market Just Found Its Second Wind 🏡

If the Phoenix housing market had a mood ring, it just changed color — in a good way.

Between October and November, we saw a sharp pullback in supply. Why? Listing expirations jumped 43%, and cancellations were up 20% compared to this time last year. The net result: overall supply fell 5% in just one month. That’s welcome news for sellers who are still in the game.

Buyers, don’t worry — you’re not short on options. Inventory is still 14% higher than last year, so choice hasn’t disappeared… it’s just becoming more selective.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates dipped compared to last month, and buyers responded. Contract activity picked up meaningfully, with under-contract listings up 12% year-over-year. Closings look softer than October at first glance, but that’s simply because November had three fewer working days. A fairer comparison is year-over-year — and there, closings are up nearly 5%.

Translation? Demand is quietly — but clearly — on the rise. After a frustrating Spring and Summer, that’s a welcome shift for almost everyone.

When demand climbs and supply pulls back, markets tend to favor sellers. Sure enough, the Demand vs Supply index is trending higher and is likely to continue moving in that direction through year-end. Perma-bears may be disappointed since the data tells a more positive story than the "crash is coming" clickbait out there.

Pricing has also found its footing. The softness we saw over the summer is gone. The average price per square foot is up 1.6% over the past 12 months — not explosive, but importantly, stable. When you factor in easing rates and rising household incomes throughout 2025, affordability has actually improved compared to December 2024.

Even though the median sales price is up year-over-year, it’s still about 2% lower after adjusting for inflation, which quietly works in buyers’ favor.

The bottom line: The market is healthier than many expected just three months ago. While 2025 has been a low-volume year — with strength concentrated mostly at the top — Greater Phoenix appears determined to finish strong.

For a deeper dive into the data, book your discussion session by scheduling a quick call with me or by contacting me here.

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Buyer vs Seller Markets - Latest Data

Below is the latest "Cromford Market Index" which helps us identify the strength of Buyer and Seller markets. Any index value over 110 represents a Seller's market, 110-90 is balanced, and under 90 is a Buyer's market. Cities ranked 1-9 are in a Seller's market, albeit Fountain Hills is currently far stronger in that respect than, say, Mesa. Almost unilaterally though, you can see green arrows, which indicates upward market trajectory. There are still plenty of deals to be had out there, however, especially in areas that haven't yet caught up on the leaderboard.

For further nerding out over this data and what it means, book your discussion session by scheduling a quick call with me or by contacting me here.